By AARON M. ALTSCHUL and HAROLD L. WILCKE (Eds.)
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Weather The final base we wish to touch in this wide field strewn with many projections of varying uncertainties is the weather factor in agricultural production. Among the causes of variations in food production from year to year in any one country or region, the variations in weather are often the determining factor. But these are also the most uncertain. //. Food and People 39 At the 1974 World Food Conference most interest was expressed in meeting the uncertainties of adverse weather effects on crop production by means of a world food reserve, primarily to guarantee importing countries continuous supplies at relatively stable prices.
4. General At the risk of overemphasizing the uncertainties that inhere in projections, we may note, in addition to these food crop illustrations, the case of cotton (and cottonseed) yields in the United States. For decades the annual yields of cotton fluctuated around 150 lb per acre. But beginning with a record yield in 1937 to about 300 by the mid-1950's, and projecting that new trend to the mid-1960's, one would have expected yields of about 350; but by 1955 a new impetus produced a steeper trend which brought average yields over 500.
But in weather and crop forecasting, it is the departures from trends or cycles that we are most often concerned with, and these the typical statistician considers as primarily random. Our interest in weather and crop forecasting a year or more in advance has led to the conclusion that what the meteorological statistician considers as primarily random and, therefore, unpredictable, may actually contain a high degree of orderliness such that, say, annual variations of the recent years may be repetitions of similar variations of an earlier period (Bean, 1969).
Animal Protein Supplies by AARON M. ALTSCHUL and HAROLD L. WILCKE (Eds.)